- Top analysts from Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and Bank of America used global and national data to predict how the US economy would reopen and how long it would take to recover to pre-coronavirus levels.
- Analysts at Morgan Stanley don’t expect all 50 US states to be fully reopened until at least June, and the country’s gross domestic product won’t reach pre-coronavirus levels until the end of 2021.
- Even in a rebound, some said, the country is likely to experience double-digit unemployment and a declining retail sector.
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Though the coronavirus pandemic never prompted a true national lockdown in the US, roughly 95% of the country ultimately became subject to stay-at-home orders, businesses have shut down, and tens of millions of people have filed for unemployment. Now that the US epicenter, New York, has declared it’s “past the plateau” of new cases, some states have begun relaxing restrictions on leaving the house.
Soon after President Donald Trump issued guidelines in mid-April to reopen the US economy, governors in Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida began moving to reopen some nonessential businesses like gyms and barber shops as well as tourist attractions like beaches. Other state leaders have joined in reopening some parts of their economies, including Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado, who on Monday reopened real-estate showings and curbside delivery at retail stores.
But how long will it take for all 50 states to fully reopen, and how long after that will it take for the economy to recover?
Analysts from Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and Bank of America expect the US economy to undergo a slow recovery.
Some say US gross domestic product won’t rebound to pre-coronavirus levels until late 2021, with the unemployment rate in double digits for more than a year. But others stress that if scientists can develop a vaccine soon, the recovery may take less than two years.
Here’s what the banks have predicted, including which businesses may never come back and when an economic recovery might arrive.