Leading U.S. economists say that the world economy is about to emerge from the lowpoint after several countries started lifting the strictest of their lockdown measures.
The economists of Wall Street giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley see signs that the world economy is starting to recover, according to a report by «Bloomberg» (behind paywall). The economic activity in several countries is picking up after the governments decided to ease the lockdown measures step-by-step.
Goldman Sachs expects the economies of the developed world to contract an average 32 percent in the second quarter, before rebounding by 16 percent in the third. In the final quarter of the year, economic growth may measure up to another 13 percent, Goldman Sachs said.
Their colleagues at Morgan Stanley also cited evidence for a rebound of the global economy. Chief economist Chetan Ahya was cited as saying that China had reached its lowpoint in February, the eurozone in April, with the U.S. following suit in late April, according to «Bloomberg».
The likelihood and strength of a recovery obviously hinge upon the further development of the pandemic and on whether there will be a sizeable second wave with another lockdown. HSBC for instance warned against betting on a sharp turnaround in the global economy and referred to the sluggish return of consumer spending in China after the end of the strict lockdown measures.